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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still