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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."